Diesel Is Dying And Toyota Already Picked Its Replacement

Toyota believes a surprising alternative fuel could soon take over where diesel leaves off, upending conventional powertrain strategies

                                        https://www.carscoops.com/author/bradcarscoops-com/                                    

Diesel engines have long been a popular choice for pickups, vans, and big SUVs in many important markets, but their days could be numbered – or at least that’s what Toyota Australia thinks. What will fill their place? Well, if the company’s forecast proves accurate, fuel cell electric vehicles could become mainstream within the next decade.

In Australia, Toyota remains hugely reliant on diesel engines. In fact, of the 163,491 vehicles it sold locally through the first eight months of the year, 48.4 percent of them had diesel engines. Models like the Hilux, LandCruiser, LandCruiser Prado, HiAce, and the popular Fortuner SUV all contribute to those figures.

Read: Toyota’s Third-Gen Fuel Cell Is Cheaper And 20% More Efficient

While the carmaker acknowledges the current importance of diesel engines, Toyota Australia vice president of sales, marketing and franchise operations, Sean Hanley, believes that diesels could be phased out entirely in the future. If they eventually become extinct in Australia where they have historically been so popular, then that doesn’t paint a pretty picture for them elsewhere.

When Diesel Runs Out of Road

“Diesel’s not going to go anytime in the next decade, but beyond that – I think hydrogen will take over diesel,” Toyota Australia vice president of sales, marketing and franchise operations Sean Hanley told CarExpert.

“I think there’s a culture of diesel in Australia… eventually I think diesel in – not the foreseeable future – but in the longer term, I can’t imagine diesel necessarily being a fuel of the future, because the reality is a petrol [vehicle] can do everything it can do – plus some,” he explained.

The Rise of Hydrogen

Hanley went on to say that, between 2030 and 2035, he expects sales of hydrogen-powered Toyota models to soar, allowing them to replace diesel-powered models.

“In the 2030s particularly that 2035 horizon, I truly believe hydrogen will be our future – and that’s where, I think, you might see a change of diesel technology… we’re setting up for that future,” he said. “Why? Hydrogen’s clean, hydrogen has range, hydrogen infrastructure will be significantly better than what you have today, obviously. It’ll be more convenient, and it’ll be affordable.”

A Split in Strategy

While Toyota is still investing heavily in hydrogen technologies, many other car manufacturers have discarded plans to go the hydrogen route, instead betting that battery-electric vehicles will be the future. Hydrogen vehicles may make a lot of sense, but the infrastructure remains in its infancy, and it will take a lot more than a single automaker to construct refueling networks that can match traditional gas stations, or newer electric vehicle charging stations.